RISP 500 is a real-time risk indicator for the U.S. stock market developed by Risk Scientific LLC, a risk management research firm

RISP 500 Users Beat the S&P 500! Year after Year after...

STOCK MARKET INVESTING GUIDED BY RISK MANAGEMENT

Market Timing & Early Crash Detection Algorithm

What RISP 500 can do for your stock portfolio

Early Crash Detection

Protection First: early warning system to avoid losing wealth you worked so hard to build up to market crashes. The best way to avoid having to dig out of a hole is by not falling in it, in the first place.

Market Timing

Enhance your net performance by timing + exploring untapped potential of higher return assets by lowering their risks. Or explore the timing advantage to enhance your own existing portfolios.

Explore Risk for Max Return

Maximize your portfolio's return-risk ratio (Sharpe, RoMaD, etc.) by tactically allocating best assets to match risk environments: rotate between risky assets (risk on) and safe assets (risk off), guided by RISP 500.

RISP 500 Indicator: FREE TRIAL Thru the Wall Street Masters Club

SEE FOR YOURSELF: You'll receive the daily live RISP 500 by email

Efficacy Demonstration of the RISP 500 Risk Indicator Through 8 Strategies

LIVE TRACK RECORD

8 Strategies Proving the Concept Day After Day Since 1/1/2022

5 two risk level strategies + 3 three risk level strategies

Strategies 1 thru 5: Under the guidance of the RISP 500, we rotate between a risk asset and a safe asset (cash). When risk remains below the 75th percentile, we hold the risk asset. When risk increased above the 75th percentile, we rotate to cash.

Strategies 6 thru 8: Under the guidance of the RISP 500, we rotate between 3 assets. When risk remains below the 70th percentile, we hold the leveraged or the riskiest asset. When risk reaches the 70th percentile, we de-leverage to a less risky asset. But when risk increases above the 95th percentile, we rotate to Gold or a long volatility position to explore extreme risks.

Note that strategies are ordered from the simplest and most conservative (Strategy 1: SPY or Cash) to the most advanced and aggressive (Strategy 8).

For these strategies (to prove the concept), RISP 500 is measured only once a day: trade only when risk level changes. This results in very low turnover (less than 2-3 trades per month, on average).

See results below (as of 13 August 2025):

2025 YTD Performance: Ranked by YTD cumulative return (daily compounded) since 01/01/2025 (left)

2022 to Date Performance: Ranked by cumulative return (daily compounded) since 01/01/2022 (right)

Report Date: 13 August 2025

FOR FULL TRANSPARENCY, WE PUBLISH OUR DAILY BLOTTER ON FACEBOOK AND X AFTER THE CLOSE, EVERY NIGHT

CHECK THE LATEST PERFORMANCE RESULTS HERE - UPDATED EVERY DAY!

Click here for the latest Performance Table (updated every day)

RISP 500 Indicator: FREE TRIAL Thru the Wall Street Masters Club

SEE FOR YOURSELF: You'll receive the daily live RISP 500 by email

CASE STUDY

2022 Bear Market and Beyond

$1,000 invested on 01/Jan/2022 turned on 01/Jul/2024:

$1,148 on the SPY ETF (+14.80%).

$1,558 on Strategy 1 (+55.80%).

Most importantly: Note how Drawdowns of Strategy 1 are much smaller than those of the SPY:

More return + Less risks!

GET THE EBOOK HERE

Stock Market Investing Guided by Risk Management ("SMIGRM")

100% data-driven methodology with risk management guiding tactical decisions

Learn the SMIGRM method, the science powering the RISP 500 risk indicator and the principles behind its methodology. Read about stories of real people and how market crashes led to the development of SMIGRM. Find out details how the methodology was implemented and its results motivating the dissemination and adoption of RISP 500 risk indicator by investors and finance professionals.

Chart depicts major trades and it is not updated daily (illustration purposes only)

HOW IT WORKS: The RPT is a cutoff line (in red) above which risks measured by the RISP 500 Percentile Rank are rejected. When that happens, it's time to go RISK OFF (sell risk positions or seek hedge). Otherwise, it's RISK ON (safer to hold risk positions).

RISP 500, our risk indicator, can guide investing, avoid market crashes, and time the market for max gain.

RPT - RISK PERCENTILE THRESHOLD

Fully Customizable to Each Investor

Set up with your own risk tolerance level and desired return

First, you can use the RISP 500 to avoid market crashes, time markets, and maximize return-risk ratios (Sharpe ratio, RoMaD, etc.) for any portfolio of assets. It's ideal for active managers, stock pickers, long-term investors, passive index investors, conservative investors, aggressive investors, day traders, swing traders, financial advisors, RIAs, CFPs, etc. The RISP 500 can help ALL investors and wealth managers!

Second, you can and should select your own RPT according to your own risk tolerance. You don't have to use ours. Which RPT should you use? We suggest starting with 65%-70% if you are a conservative investor, 70%-80% if you are a moderate investor, or 80%-95% if you are an aggressive investor. Make adjustments later based on your experience. Note that aggressive investors (higher RPT) typically stay exposed to higher risks longer than conservative investors (lower RPT).

In summary: we measure risks for you and you make your own decisions!

CASE STUDY

2020 Coronavirus Crash: Learn how RISP 500 protects investors

See charts above how the most basic strategy (Strategy 1) with only two assets (SPY or Cash) fared during the 2020 Coronavirus Crash. The top graphs are the RISP 500 Percentile Rank from Jan 2020 to Aug 2020. The bottom graphs are the S&P 500 index during the same period. The Coronavirus Crash started on Feb 19, 2020.

A more conservative investor with 70% RPT (left chart) would have sold their stock positions on the same day. This investor would remain out of the market until late May to return when RISP 500 crossed below 70% RPT for the 1st time after the crash. Red areas on the charts mean the investor is no longer holding stocks or risky assets (RISP 500 > RPT).

A more aggressive investor with a 90% RPT (right chart) would have sold their stock positions one day later. Note that this investor would have returned to the market sooner and taken advantage of some relief rallies that the conservative investor hasn't. Green areas on the charts mean the investor is holding stocks or risky assets (RISP 500 < RPT).

S = Sell risky assets (or the S&P 500) and B = Buy risky assets (or the S&P 500).

Note: S&P 500 is a widely used stock market index and a trademark of S&P Global, Inc.

CASE STUDY

2011 - 2020 Major Crashes

(Cutoff at 75% RPT)

CASE STUDY

How has RISP 500 performed during the recent rout (August-September 2024)?

WEALTH MANAGERS

RISP 500 Solutions for Wealth Managers

Professional Investors, Investment Advisors, Portfolio Managers, Financial Planners, RIA firms, Family Offices, etc.

WEALTH MANAGERS

Situations to Avoid

Clients often don't appreciate the efforts investment professionals put into the business: they are not seeing behind the scenes how hard is to make money in a risky environment. But they rightfully demand results they are paying advisors for. By trusting you their wealth, they are 100% counting on you.

Don't drop the ball. Avoid these situations. Let RISP 500 help you. Your success is our success.

HARD DECISIONS

In Critical Moments, Be Guided by Data

You know how hard is to make decisions fast under uncertainty and pressure. Mistakes can happen as well as wrong judgments and costly decisions. In crucial turning points, often hell breaks loose in the markets. Pilots, sailors, and astronauts navigate not by hunch, memory, opinions, and forecasts, but they are guided by precision instruments and data. 

In critical moments, it's more reliable to be guided by objective, cold, hard data. This is our belief after years in the battlefield.

RISP 500 was created to help you in these critical moments that may determine the result of the entire year's performance. Protect the earnings and performance you worked so hard to build. Don't let an unpredictable market event wipe that out!

RISP 500 Indicator: FREE TRIAL Thru the Wall Street Masters Club

SEE FOR YOURSELF: You'll receive the daily live RISP 500 by email

'DONE FOR YOU' SOLUTION

We do the trading and risk management for you

We Offer Outsourced Trading Services 100% Customized to Your Needs, Risk Tolerance, and Performance Targets

Why outsource? For a small monthly fee, you get superior results and save BIG on bonuses, expat packages, and employment costs

We don't manage your clients' accounts directly nor touch their money. We provide you timely key information to trade.

(For professional wealth/asset management firms only, US or international)

RISP 500 SUBSCRIPTION + SPECIAL SERVICES

Wealth Managers, Investment Professionals, Financial Advisors with AUM, Family Offices

100% Customized Services and Pricing

We recognize professionals have different needs, challenges, and goals so we want to be as flexible as possible in our services offerings. We want to offer 100% customizable services and pricing. See some ideas for service packages below. If none of the 5 suggested service packages is ideal for what you need, please let us know and we will custom-make one especially for you.

We respond all inquiries within 24 hours (email VIPcustomerservice@risp500.com)

PODCAST

What is Stock Market Investing Guided by Risk Management?

Listen to a brief podcast discussion to learn more (14 min audio)

Thanks Deep Dive Podcast Google NotebookLM

FAQ section

Frequently asked questions

You've got questions. We've got answers.

I find it hard to believe: How could some strategies of SMIGRM with RISP 500 outperform the S&P 500® by so much?

We understand the skepticism. If we hadn’t tested it, audited the data, and performed live trading ourselves, we wouldn’t have believed it either. Avoiding costly drawdowns and the absurd time-wasting caused by the gain-loss asymmetry pays off in the long run because avoided losses will have long-lasting effects. Avoided losses are gains when compared with a benchmark, and compounding effects cause the gap to snowball over time.

In addition, leveraged strategies benefit even more from SMIGRM. The compounding effect of gains and avoided losses snowball even faster for leveraged strategies.

How do I know RISP 500 will work for me? Do you offer guarantees?

While there is no such thing as guarantees in the investment world, we strive to make the RISP 500 the best tool to navigate a probabilistic world. The RISP 500 is already helping many managers successfully navigate turbulent markets and unless your investment philosophy is from out of this world, we trust you will benefit from it too. In fact, Risk Scientific LLC runs the subscription programs and offers a free trial period. You are free to cancel anytime if not entirely satisfied.

I’m a manager based outside the United States and I never invested in American stocks. Why should I?

The U.S. stock market has had an enviable performance record and it’s home to the largest and most influential companies in the world. With the RISP 500 now you can easily and confidently invest in the U.S. even if you have never bought a single American stock before. Think of your clients. They deserve the best. Diversify your investments.

Are you going to execute trades for my firm and manage my clients’ funds?

No, even if you sign up the Full Trading Desk package. We will send you timely info for you to execute the trades in your firm. We help control your risks and P/L and will prepare daily reports but we never touch your money.

If this is so good, why don’t you keep it a secret and make all the money for yourselves?

We believe there is more in life than money. To start a money management firm or a hedge fund require great sums of money just to get started and it's not our vocation to manage one. Besides, we are a risk management solutions firm. It's a different type of skill. We want to revolutionize risk management and aid investors, especially those who DIY, and also assist wealth managers in helping their clients. Remember, this is not a crystal ball or a guaranteed payout. We believe in challenging the status quo of the risk management world.

I already have and love my own strategies.

Great! We believe adding RISP 500 to your toolbox to work with them will help you be even more successful. SMIGRM may work on its own but it can also work in tandem with any other methods and strategies, helping them perform better! For example, you may be a great stock picker and portfolio manager, but you still need a market timing tool and a data-based sensitive warning mechanism to alert you of upcoming dangers coming from nowhere. Remember, we will never tell you what to do. You are always the decision maker. RISP 500 is another tool that provides you valuable information about the risks in the market. We believe risk is an important piece of the puzzle to help you visualize the investment landscape to make decisions.  

Are you licensed investment advisors?

Nope. We don’t offer any investment advice nor sell any securities. We are a risk management solutions firm. We will also never compete with you. Your success will be our success.

Do you offer risk-free trial and cancel anytime?

Absolutely yes! We offer a two-week free trial period and you may also cancel anytime. Seeing is believing so we want it to be RISK-FREE for you to see and feel the power of RISP 500 for yourself!

I know people who'd love this. Can I get paid by referring subscribers?

Yes! We have a referral program and you can get paid cash just by referring new subscribers. We will provide you an affiliate's link to get you paid quickly. Just by being our fan and referring us to your friends and social media followers and they become subscribers, this is the best way we want to THANK YOU!