RISP 500 is a real-time risk indicator for the U.S. stock market developed by Risk Scientific LLC, a risk management research firm
STOCK MARKET INVESTING GUIDED BY RISK MANAGEMENT
What RISP 500 can do for your stock portfolio
Protection First: early warning system to avoid losing wealth you worked so hard to build up to market crashes. The best way to avoid having to dig out of a hole is by not falling in it, in the first place.
Enhance your net performance by timing + exploring untapped potential of higher return assets by lowering their risks. Or explore the timing advantage to enhance your own existing portfolios.
Maximize your portfolio's return-risk ratio (Sharpe, RoMaD, etc.) by tactically allocating best assets to match risk environments: rotate between risky assets (risk on) and safe assets (risk off), guided by RISP 500.
SEE FOR YOURSELF: You'll receive the daily live RISP 500 by email
LIVE TRACK RECORD
5 two risk level strategies + 3 three risk level strategies
Strategies 1 thru 5: Under the guidance of the RISP 500, we rotate between a risk asset and a safe asset (cash). When risk remains below the 75th percentile, we hold the risk asset. When risk increased above the 75th percentile, we rotate to cash.
Strategies 6 thru 8: Under the guidance of the RISP 500, we rotate between 3 assets. When risk remains below the 70th percentile, we hold the leveraged or the riskiest asset. When risk reaches the 70th percentile, we de-leverage to a less risky asset. But when risk increases above the 95th percentile, we rotate to Gold or a long volatility position to explore extreme risks.
Note that strategies are ordered from the simplest and most conservative (Strategy 1: SPY or Cash) to the most advanced and aggressive (Strategy 8).
For these strategies (to prove the concept), RISP 500 is measured only once a day: trade only when risk level changes. This results in very low turnover (less than 2-3 trades per month, on average).
See results below (as of 13 August 2025):
2025 YTD Performance: Ranked by YTD cumulative return (daily compounded) since 01/01/2025 (left)
2022 to Date Performance: Ranked by cumulative return (daily compounded) since 01/01/2022 (right)
Report Date: 13 August 2025
FOR FULL TRANSPARENCY, WE PUBLISH OUR DAILY BLOTTER ON FACEBOOK AND X AFTER THE CLOSE, EVERY NIGHT
CHECK THE LATEST PERFORMANCE RESULTS HERE - UPDATED EVERY DAY!
Click here for the latest Performance Table (updated every day)
SEE FOR YOURSELF: You'll receive the daily live RISP 500 by email
CASE STUDY
$1,000 invested on 01/Jan/2022 turned on 01/Jul/2024:
$1,148 on the SPY ETF (+14.80%).
$1,558 on Strategy 1 (+55.80%).
Most importantly: Note how Drawdowns of Strategy 1 are much smaller than those of the SPY:
More return + Less risks!
GET THE EBOOK HERE
100% data-driven methodology with risk management guiding tactical decisions
Learn the SMIGRM method, the science powering the RISP 500 risk indicator and the principles behind its methodology. Read about stories of real people and how market crashes led to the development of SMIGRM. Find out details how the methodology was implemented and its results motivating the dissemination and adoption of RISP 500 risk indicator by investors and finance professionals.
Chart depicts major trades and it is not updated daily (illustration purposes only)
HOW IT WORKS: The RPT is a cutoff line (in red) above which risks measured by the RISP 500 Percentile Rank are rejected. When that happens, it's time to go RISK OFF (sell risk positions or seek hedge). Otherwise, it's RISK ON (safer to hold risk positions).
RISP 500, our risk indicator, can guide investing, avoid market crashes, and time the market for max gain.
RPT - RISK PERCENTILE THRESHOLD
Set up with your own risk tolerance level and desired return
First, you can use the RISP 500 to avoid market crashes, time markets, and maximize return-risk ratios (Sharpe ratio, RoMaD, etc.) for any portfolio of assets. It's ideal for active managers, stock pickers, long-term investors, passive index investors, conservative investors, aggressive investors, day traders, swing traders, financial advisors, RIAs, CFPs, etc. The RISP 500 can help ALL investors and wealth managers!
Second, you can and should select your own RPT according to your own risk tolerance. You don't have to use ours. Which RPT should you use? We suggest starting with 65%-70% if you are a conservative investor, 70%-80% if you are a moderate investor, or 80%-95% if you are an aggressive investor. Make adjustments later based on your experience. Note that aggressive investors (higher RPT) typically stay exposed to higher risks longer than conservative investors (lower RPT).
In summary: we measure risks for you and you make your own decisions!
CASE STUDY
CASE STUDY
(Cutoff at 75% RPT)
CASE STUDY
WEALTH MANAGERS
Professional Investors, Investment Advisors, Portfolio Managers, Financial Planners, RIA firms, Family Offices, etc.
WEALTH MANAGERS
Clients often don't appreciate the efforts investment professionals put into the business: they are not seeing behind the scenes how hard is to make money in a risky environment. But they rightfully demand results they are paying advisors for. By trusting you their wealth, they are 100% counting on you.
Don't drop the ball. Avoid these situations. Let RISP 500 help you. Your success is our success.
HARD DECISIONS
You know how hard is to make decisions fast under uncertainty and pressure. Mistakes can happen as well as wrong judgments and costly decisions. In crucial turning points, often hell breaks loose in the markets. Pilots, sailors, and astronauts navigate not by hunch, memory, opinions, and forecasts, but they are guided by precision instruments and data.
In critical moments, it's more reliable to be guided by objective, cold, hard data. This is our belief after years in the battlefield.
RISP 500 was created to help you in these critical moments that may determine the result of the entire year's performance. Protect the earnings and performance you worked so hard to build. Don't let an unpredictable market event wipe that out!
SEE FOR YOURSELF: You'll receive the daily live RISP 500 by email
'DONE FOR YOU' SOLUTION
We Offer Outsourced Trading Services 100% Customized to Your Needs, Risk Tolerance, and Performance Targets
Why outsource? For a small monthly fee, you get superior results and save BIG on bonuses, expat packages, and employment costs
We don't manage your clients' accounts directly nor touch their money. We provide you timely key information to trade.
(For professional wealth/asset management firms only, US or international)
RISP 500 SUBSCRIPTION + SPECIAL SERVICES
100% Customized Services and Pricing
We recognize professionals have different needs, challenges, and goals so we want to be as flexible as possible in our services offerings. We want to offer 100% customizable services and pricing. See some ideas for service packages below. If none of the 5 suggested service packages is ideal for what you need, please let us know and we will custom-make one especially for you.
We respond all inquiries within 24 hours (email VIPcustomerservice@risp500.com)
PODCAST
Listen to a brief podcast discussion to learn more (14 min audio)
Thanks Deep Dive Podcast Google NotebookLM
FAQ section
You've got questions. We've got answers.
We understand the skepticism. If we hadn’t tested it, audited the data, and performed live trading ourselves, we wouldn’t have believed it either. Avoiding costly drawdowns and the absurd time-wasting caused by the gain-loss asymmetry pays off in the long run because avoided losses will have long-lasting effects. Avoided losses are gains when compared with a benchmark, and compounding effects cause the gap to snowball over time.
In addition, leveraged strategies benefit even more from SMIGRM. The compounding effect of gains and avoided losses snowball even faster for leveraged strategies.
While there is no such thing as guarantees in the investment world, we strive to make the RISP 500 the best tool to navigate a probabilistic world. The RISP 500 is already helping many managers successfully navigate turbulent markets and unless your investment philosophy is from out of this world, we trust you will benefit from it too. In fact, Risk Scientific LLC runs the subscription programs and offers a free trial period. You are free to cancel anytime if not entirely satisfied.
The U.S. stock market has had an enviable performance record and it’s home to the largest and most influential companies in the world. With the RISP 500 now you can easily and confidently invest in the U.S. even if you have never bought a single American stock before. Think of your clients. They deserve the best. Diversify your investments.
No, even if you sign up the Full Trading Desk package. We will send you timely info for you to execute the trades in your firm. We help control your risks and P/L and will prepare daily reports but we never touch your money.
We believe there is more in life than money. To start a money management firm or a hedge fund require great sums of money just to get started and it's not our vocation to manage one. Besides, we are a risk management solutions firm. It's a different type of skill. We want to revolutionize risk management and aid investors, especially those who DIY, and also assist wealth managers in helping their clients. Remember, this is not a crystal ball or a guaranteed payout. We believe in challenging the status quo of the risk management world.
Great! We believe adding RISP 500 to your toolbox to work with them will help you be even more successful. SMIGRM may work on its own but it can also work in tandem with any other methods and strategies, helping them perform better! For example, you may be a great stock picker and portfolio manager, but you still need a market timing tool and a data-based sensitive warning mechanism to alert you of upcoming dangers coming from nowhere. Remember, we will never tell you what to do. You are always the decision maker. RISP 500 is another tool that provides you valuable information about the risks in the market. We believe risk is an important piece of the puzzle to help you visualize the investment landscape to make decisions.
Nope. We don’t offer any investment advice nor sell any securities. We are a risk management solutions firm. We will also never compete with you. Your success will be our success.
Absolutely yes! We offer a two-week free trial period and you may also cancel anytime. Seeing is believing so we want it to be RISK-FREE for you to see and feel the power of RISP 500 for yourself!
Yes! We have a referral program and you can get paid cash just by referring new subscribers. We will provide you an affiliate's link to get you paid quickly. Just by being our fan and referring us to your friends and social media followers and they become subscribers, this is the best way we want to THANK YOU!